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(79 People Likes) If you find large amounts of gold, won’t that reduce the value of the gold due to inflation?

There are some great stories about people that thought they could answer your question, but…
Here’s my favorite.
THE STORY OF “SILVER THURSDAY”
My favorite is the story of when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market. (I know, I know, silver is not gold, but work with me….) The most important distinction is – in addition to looking nice – silver has industrial functions that complement it’s aesthetics.
THE SILVER MARKET WAS SMALL
In 1979, the entire silver market was only a couple hundred million at most. Sounds low to begin with. AND, a lot of that silver wasn’t going anywhere. It was in commercial apps, jewelry, fine silverwear etc..
Anyway, the commodities markets offer investors some very real leverage, so it’s possible – with a relatively small amount of money to take on enough debt to buy all of the available supply of silver and corner the market.
Silver may not seem like a major commodity, but it also isn’t going away. So, with a carefully coordinated “attack” someone could control that market. A position that would allow a person to enjoy unending wealth by “sticking it” to the public. (Some people look at the human condition and want to make a contribution. And, some people look at that condition and want to sodomize it…)
THE REAL “J. R. EWING”
The Hunt children were in the latter group. In fairness, they probably weren’t cuddled much as children. Their father H. L. Hunt was the inspiration for both the fictional patriarch J. R. Ewing (“Dallas”) and Headly Lamar (“Blazing Saddles”) A self made billionaire with who’s life story is even more entertaining than the two fictional characters he inspired.
The 2 Hunt brothers that matter in this story (Nelson and William) were the middle children of 13 additional brothers / sisters spread over 3 different baby mamas. Born into the shadow of a legendary, but detached father and successful siblings (older brother Lamar, built the AFL, arranged the first Super Bowl and owned the KC Chiefs, the “morally flexible” middle Hunt brothers struggled to make-their-mark on a world that they could buy with their inheritance.
MARKETS ARE REALLY BIG
And, starting in early 1979, the boys started buying. Soon, the laws of supply and demand drove the prices up and the Bass brothers began “backlevering” – a very aggressive technique where recent gains in price are relevered.
But, there was a bigger problem…. the marker kept getting bigger. What started out as $100mm, soon turned into billions. The silver market was multiplying in size – even though none of the mines had announced any strikes or changes in supply. Yet soon, their capital at risk was over a billion! (There’s a side story here. One of the mysteries was why their lead investment bank Prudential Bache kept lending them money. It would later come out that the Hunt’s owned an undisclosed 6.5% of Prudential and had influenced the credit decision)
Once a bank started lending, they were convinced to continue to lend because they kept being told the ‘end was near’. Still more silver was coming into the market.
Well, it turned out people were melting down their silver and selling it. The more the price increased, the more silver was being sold Further, outside of the Hunts, people substituted other metals for silver. Qty of supply was up and qty of demand was down
Still this thing got BIG. Then the SEC (who paid attention back then) realzed the whole scheme for what it was…. Market manipulation. They changed the leverage requirements on a Thursday in 1980 and the whole thing collapsed
The incident created the first too-big-to-fail incident of my lifetime. Not only did the Hunts lose everything but, the banks were in a free fall. Ultimately, the Fed organized a rescue package for Prudential (where I would go on to start my investment banking career 7 years later – just days before “Black Monday”)
GOT IT. WHAT WAS THE QUESTION AGAIN?
I probably meandered a bit here. But, I have a point. Or, at least, I think I do (although, admittedly, I’m not sure it relates to the question…)
OH YEAH… WHILE MICROECONIMICS GIVE YOU A STRAIGHTFOWARD ANSWER TO A STRAIGHTFORWARD QUESTION, ISOLATING CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS IS MUCH HARDER
A perfectly efficient market would instantly and efficiently price the news of a new find into the price. But markets aren’t, they’re big and very complicated. And, while we can make some good guesses as to wh Real Doll t happens immediately after some big “shock” or event on commodity prices, the secondary effects are often harder to see.
So, if you found a lot of gold somewhere, and everything else in the world remained constant and everybody in that gold market had perfect information about you

(26 People Likes) How large can the national debt get to before we collapse financially, or the dollar loses world reserve currency status?

eficit poses far less of a threat to the U.S. economy than politicians claim. By-in-large, it’s an imaginary crisis being promoted by conservative groups for the benefit of the wealthy Whether sponsored by the greedy (Heritage Foundation) or the clueless (Tea Party), the argument seizes on the broader public’s sense of civic responsibility and the fact that the macroeconomics are counter-intuitive.
People are told that, by cutting spending and giving up programs designed to help them that they will prevent their grand-kids from bearing the burden of our fiscal irresponsibility…. It sounds responsible and logical. It’s complete bullshit. But, it sounds great and gets repeated again and again
IT’S A MISTAKE TO LOOK AT SOVEREIGN DEBT THE SAME WAY AS HOUSEHOLD DEBT
The problem is, when we think about sovereign debt, we naturally equate it with our own household debt. Household debt needs to be repaid with relatively limited resources. But, we naturally assume that we have to “pay it back” by generating surplus dollars, in the same way that we would have to, If we incurred the debt ourselves.
REASONS OUR DEFICIT IS LESS PROBLEMATIC THAN PEOPLE THINK
There are a couple significant factors that prevent us from having a debt crisis.
Our debt is denominated in US dollars. Dollars that we just happen to print. This is an important mechanism called “seniorage”. It basically taxes the currency that people hold in cash by devaluing it slightly. Who holds cash? Most of it is held outside the US and by some people that you probably don’t mind paying a little tax to the US
Our debt is largely held by US citizens. (Over 65%) The reason Greece had problems was that Germans held all of it’s debt. So, the transaction money flows benefit US citizens as they sit in US pensioners, hedge funds, money markets etc. This is more important than it sounds. The main beneficiary of our debt payments is the U.S.
Debt service payments are largely recycled within the U.S. economy. So, when the government pays interest, or repays the principal balance, most of it stays in our country, where it is recycled into our economy
Despite the rhetoric, China owns ~5.5% of our debt and they aren’t gonna stop buying it anytime soon…. they can’t. Despite the handwringing, China needs to buy US debt as badly as we need to sell it. The mechanism by which this works probably would be a standalone topic. But, basically – China has a huge problem. Their cities are absorbing about 15mm people from the countryside every year. If those migrants cant afford to live in the cities and can’t find jobs, China is gonna have another revolution (btw, this is gonna get worse for them, thanks to the growing over-representation of males in their country, resulting from their “one child” policy.
But, I digress… China’s strategy (and it’s a good one) is to export their way out of a spot. But, if they stop finding the US debt, we won’t have money to buy their exports and they could become pretty volatile.
THE BEST WAY TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT IS… TO SPEND MORE MONEY (REALLY!)
The best way to reduce our debt is through spending that stimulates the economy. I’ve now watched with chagrin as the GOP mechanically blocked every infrastructure spending bill. (Even though, our borrowing rate at the time was negative – investors were offering their money at such low interest rates, that the inflation rate was higher.)
Trump promised a massive infrastructure plan but decided it would be better to cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans and then claim we didn’t have enough money.
How do you “payback” the debt, if you’re a country. Well, you don’t have to. You can grow your way out of it (like we did with the WWII debt and we started to do in the 1990s). But, here’s the problem, you have to see the wealthy pay their fair share…. So, we get a “debt crisis”
How do you grow your way out of it? Ironically, you increase the debt balance
INVESTING IN INFRASTRUCTURE IS THE BEST WAY TO SPEND MONEY… BUT, IT’S NOT SO GOOD IF YOU’RE RICH AND WANT TO ENJOY YOUR MONEY…
As a basic rule “infrastructure spending” helps the county. Aside from the natural benefits of better roads, power distribution, schools etc, infrastructure spending creates jobs and supports businesses. But, if you’ve already got a lot of money and don’t want to work hard or innovate, you’ll be worse off.
And, that’s what this all comes down to. The debt crisis is a fabrication, buoyed by moneyed interests who’s primary purpose is to protect their wealth rather than support our countr

(62 People Likes) What to Expect Know Before You Go

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